By 2050, Poland could be losing as much as 124 billion PLN a year on the effects of climate change, according to a new report by ClientEarth Foundation Lawyers for the Earth and Reform Institute. That’s the equivalent of 2.2% of the country’s mid-century GDP. The authors warn that without accelerating green transition and investment in adaptation measures, the losses continue to grow, and neither public finances nor the insurance system are prepared for the threats ahead.

Highlights:

• 124 billion PLN a year – that’s how much climate change could cost Poland in 2050 if we don’t accelerate climate action,
• 13 billion PLN cost the September 2024 flood, caused by heavy rains, whose occurrence was twice as likely due to climate change.
• 0.2% of GDP – that’s how much Poland spent on climate protection between 2019 and 2023, less than half of Polish spending on fossil fuel subsidies (0.5% of GDP) and less than a third of what the government earned from selling allowances in the EU ETS (0.7% of GDP).
• Only 7% of losses resulting from extreme weather events in Poland are insured – the remaining costs are covered by local governments, companies and residents.
• Without adaptation measures, Poland will be increasingly less resilient to the effects of droughts, floods, extreme temperatures and economic losses.

Three days of rain, billions in losses. And this is just the beginning

In September 2024, southwestern Poland experienced severe flooding. Three days of unusually intense rainfall caused the deaths of nine people, the destruction of more than 200 bridges and thousands of flooded homes. Total losses: 13 billion PLN. Experts from ClimaMeter and World Weather Attribution confirm that climate change has doubled the likelihood of such precipitation.

Costly inaction

“We are already suffering the real losses of intensifying climate change, yet in public debate, it is still too often treated as a future issue,” says Aleksander Śniegocki, co-author of the report, CEO of the Reform Institute, and Head of Economic Analysis. “Without investments in resilience and adaptation, Poland will not only be poorer, but also less safe and increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of preventable events.”

Two paths, one choice

Experts have analysed possible paths for Poland’s development until 2050, depending on the pace and effectiveness of climate action. Their comparison clearly illustrates what is at stake today:

• Continued efforts to achieve European and global climate goals – limiting losses to about 83 billion PLN per year (or 1.5% of GDP).
• Slowing down efforts leading to an unfinished energy transition – up to 124 billion PLN per year (more than 2.2% of GDP).

The difference? More than 40 billion PLN every year. If we assume that 40 million people live in Poland, then 40 billion PLN means 1,000 PLN per citizen, regardless of age. The biggest contributors to the estimated costs are floodings, decreased labour productivity, damage to infrastructure and health problems caused by the heat. The most vulnerable regions are Lower Silesia, Silesia and Lesser Poland.

The authors of the report also emphasize that the presented estimates are based on the best available knowledge regarding the various impacts of climate change; however, this knowledge may still underestimate the systemic vulnerability of nature, societies, and economies to climate shocks. A growing number of studies point to the risk of GDP declines of several percent or even tens of percent as a result of climate change.

“There is a real possibility that the actual costs of climate change in Poland could far exceed standard projections, potentially by an order of magnitude. That’s why continued efforts to meet climate targets act as an insurance policy, and abandoning the transition can be compared to playing Russian roulette,” says Aneta Stefańczyk, Public Policy Analyst at the Reform Institute and co-author of the report.

Not enough funds, not enough protection

The report stresses the still low level of spending from the state budget on climate protection (currently about 0.2% of GDP) and the limited use of EU ETS money. Meanwhile, more than 50 billion PLN was directed to support the fossil fuel sector in Poland in 2023 alone. In comparison, only 7% of climate-related losses are insured.

“The state today has no real mechanisms to protect itself from the effects of climate change,” says Wojciech Kukuła, a lawyer and board member of the ClientEarth Foundation. “If we don’t take climate into account in the planning of public finances, we will pay the bill in the worst possible way: damage after damage.”

The report in slidepack form is available in Polish.